activity described here satisfies Common Core State Standard CCSS.MATH.CONTENT.HSS.CP.A.5, which states that high school students are expected to “recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability in everyday situations" ( NGA Center and CCSSO
Todd D. CadwalladerOlsker
Bayes's theorem is notorious for being a difficult topic to learn and to teach. Problems involving Bayes's theorem (either implicitly or explicitly) generally involve calculations based on two or more given probabilities and their complements. Further, a correct solution depends on students' ability to interpret the problem correctly. Shaughnessy (1992) has commented, “There is a good deal of cognitive strain involved in reading the problem and keeping everything straight; it is difficult for students to interpret exactly what they are being asked to do” (p. 471).
A set of problems of many types